Short-term outlook by region
As published in the Financial statements bulletin 2019
Consumer demand for apartments is expected to remain on the good level average level of 2019. Institutional investor demand is expected to stay on a good level. Activity among private residential investors is expected to be on the level of 2019. Location and price level continue to play a key role. Demand for new rental apartments in good locations continues to be on a good level supported by low interest levels. Stricter lending practice by financial institutions and potential changes in legislation may impact consumer demand in the future.
Divergent development of apartment prices and demand between growth centres and the rest of Finland is expected to continue. Increased supply of apartments is anticipated to prevent the rise of housing prices.
Rental demand for business premises is expected to remain on a good level in growth centres. Activity among property investors is expected to remain at a good level, particularly for centrally located projects in the Helsinki metropolitan area and in major growth centres. The contracting market is expected to remain active.
Renovation is expected to grow moderately due to increasing urbanisation and aging of building stock.
Construction costs are estimated to stay on a stable level. Construction volume is expected to return to a normal level.
Increased regulation and higher capital requirements imposed on financial institutions affect construction and property development. Financial institutions have tightened housing company lending in the market.
In infrastructure construction, complex infrastructure projects in urban growth centres as well as transport projects and industrial investments maintain demand. In 2020, the infrastructure construction market is expected to grow.
Demand for apartments is expected to remain at the same level as seen on average in 2019. Demand is expected to focus primarily on affordable apartments; this is also supported by demographic trends. The recent key rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia have lead to a decrease in mortgage interest rates.
Changes in regulation concerning the housing market are expected to continue to cause uncertainty and turbulence in the market, to maintain volatility in supply and sales practices as well as to increase housing prices in the longer term.
The Baltic countries and CEE countries
Residential demand in the Baltic countries is expected to remain on a good level, where the capital regions continue to grow. Availability of financing and low interest rates are expected to continue to support residential demand. Weaker outlook for the German economy might impact residential demand in the CEE countries. Residential prices are estimated to increase further.
Prices of plots have increased and competition for plots is expected to remain intense. Shortage of resources and long construction permit processes are expected to continue to increase construction cost inflation and to limit volume growth.
Contracting market for business premises is expected to remain at the current level or to decrease slightly in the Baltic countries.
In the Baltic countries, the volume of infrastructure construction is expected to continue to grow moderately due to the states’ investments in improving urban and transport infrastructure, but competition is expected to remain intense.
In Norway and Sweden, infrastructure construction is boosted by multi-year, state-funded traffic infrastructure development programmes and urbanisation. In both countries, infrastructure construction is expected to grow in 2020. Large-scale road, railway projects and industrial investments are ongoing or planned in Sweden and Norway, which will increase demand for infrastructure projects. In addition, especially Norway is investing in the development and renewal of energy production.
YIT operates in Finland, Russia, Scandinavia, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland.
In Finland, we are the largest residential developer and one of the biggest business premises and infrastructure constructors. In Russia, we are the largest foreign residential developer and one of the top operators in the CEE countries.
As of April 1, 2019, YIT's five reportable segments are Housing Finland and CEE, Housing Russia, Business premises, Infrastructure projects as well as Partnership properties.